Mock Expansion Draft

Expansion. The notion pops up every once in a while, exciting the bejeezus out of Kansas City, Las Vegas, Hamilton, and any other city that has gotten a whiff of talks about getting a potential NHL team. However, given the current economic climate it's simply not feasible.

Yet, I was curious, what happens if tomorrow the NHL decides to award two lucky cities an NHL franchise? Then we get to witness the weirdness of an NHL Expansion Draft. Rather than the usual draft of future stars, it's a draft of leftovers.

The basic parameters of an expansion draft are as follows. Each of the existing 30 NHL teams can protect 1 goaltender, 5 defenseman, and 9 forwards. The other option is to protect 2 goaltenders, 3 defenseman, and 7 forwards. I didn't see any teams choosing the latter option, so all 30 teams in my hypothetical chose to protect 1 goalie. Also, rookie players got automatic protection and do not count toward the allotted number. Each new team would then draft 3 goaltenders, 8 defenseman, and 13 forwards in that order.

So, I went through and I conducted the mock draft myself, protecting the players I thought each team would protect, then drafting them in the order I thought they would be drafted. I'm presenting the results broken up into the two hypothetical teams, East and West, in the order I believe the teams would draft them.

After completing this experiment I noticed a number of issues that arise from an expansion draft. First, let's look at the results:

Eastern Team

Goaltenders

J.S. Giguere
Jose Theodore
Jaroslav Halak

Defensemen

Christoph Schubert
Steve Staios
Mike Van Ryn
Martin Skoula
Steve Montador
Hal Gill
Mark Eaton
Peter Harrold

Forwards

Dustin Penner
B.J. Crombeen
Maxim Lapierre
Alexander Steen
T.J. Hensick
Chris Kelly
Tomas Kopecky
Kyle Brodziak
Mike Grier
Pascal Dupuis
Ian Laperriere
Ben Eager
Tom Kostopoulos
Craig Adams
Rick Rypien

Western Team

Goaltenders

Tim Thomas
Vesa Toskala
Martin Biron

Defensemen

Garnett Exelby
Nick Boynton
Milan Jurcina
Mathieu Schneider
Jeff Finger
Lukas Krajicek
Jeff Schultz
Sean O'Donnell

Forwards

Todd Bertuzzi
Eric Belanger
Fredrik Modin
Dominic Moore
Daniel Paille
Radek Dvorak
Scott Walker
Fredrik Sjostrom
Ben Guite
Travis Moen
Torrey Mitchell
Raffi Torres
Steve Begin
Brian Boyle
Fernando Pisani

Obviously, these aren't the strongest teams. The purpose is simply to give the new teams some players to ice while hindering the other 30 teams as little as possible. Then after a few years of toiling in the basement, the new teams should have compiled enough high draft picks to ice some franchise-player talent.

Some observations:

Age? Some of my decisions were dictated by the longevity of a player. For example, both of the top goalies selected were players you would expect to be protected. However, both Boston and Anaheim have goaltenders that are considered their future. In Anaheim's case, Jonas Hiller is considered their present as well. As a GM I would rather hang onto the goaltender that could give me 10 good years rather than 4. This begs another important question; how much does a team's loyalty to a player count? Think Modano. He's on the tail end of a career of great memories in Dallas, but is he worth protecting for 2 or 3 more years?

Contracts? More than a few teams have signed players to bad contracts. Would these teams take this opportunity to potentially unload an overpaid player? Granted, they wouldn't receive anything in return, but they also wouldn't have to pay an overpaid player. In the case of Dustin Penner, I figured the Oilers would see if there were any takers for the big man. Oh, and believe me, I thought long and hard about whether the Islanders would try to unload DiPietro.

Consequences? What happens to a player that does not get protected and they go undrafted. Do they get offended? Would it create a similar atmosphere as when a player gets wind they are on the trade block? There is certainly a risk involved.

The best and worst? I noticed the teams that fare the best are the teams with the most rookies on the roster. The more rookies, the less players that count toward the 9 protection spots. The teams that have the hardest time? Teams with a lot of 2nd or 3rd year players, such as St. Louis. I'm sure B.J. Crombeen isn't a guy they would love letting go, but with the likes of Oshie, Berglund, and Perron taking up valuable spots someone is bound to find themself on the outside looking in.

Most likely to be left out? The agitators and the fighters were the most common names to find themselves out of the mix. There seems to be a pretty good collection of bruisers in the AHL ready to step up, so why waste a slot on one? However, Avery and Carcillo both won spots on their respective teams from me due to their versatility.

Although it will certainly be a while before an Expansion Draft rears it's ugly head, if GM's in this league anticipate growth, they had better anticipate making some tough decisions.

Who the Isles Will Pick and Why...

So much changes in such little time. At the end of the season, the New York Islanders were in the least enviable position as they sat at the bottom of the NHL rankings. Their owner Charles Wang even admitted that he regretted ever buying the club.

This weekend, they will be in the most desired position of any team as they step to the podium to make the 1st overall selection in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.

The Islanders have a tough decision ahead of them, but it's kind of like choosing between steak and lobster. They have two excellent prospects to pick from and there are great reasons to select either of them. So let's cut to the chase!

Why the Islanders should choose Victor Hedman:

Hedman is big, strong, and talented. It's tough to find guys who fill all of those categories. You've got guys like Mike Green who can pot 30 goals, but may leave something to be desired in defensive aspects of the game. Then you've got your Hal Gill-types who tower over forwards and plug them against the boards, yet he is lucky to score more than a goal a season. Then you've got Zdeno Chara. He is huge, shuts down the opposing forwards, and can score as well.

Zdeno Chara doesn't fall off trees. I'm not saying Hedman is or will be Chara, but his potential to be a big, strong, and offensively potent defender is there and then some. Teams build around defense and Hedman would definitely go a long, long way in helping the Isles rebuild their defense. Not to mention Hedman could help as soon as next season, a rarity for defenseman.

Why the Islanders should choose John Tavares:

How many players were scoring a goal per game in juniors? John Tavares was. How many players can boast breaking records set by Wayne Gretzky? John Tavares can. This is a player with unreal goal scoring potential. He has a nose for the net and the hands of a concert pianist. Tavares would provide an instant injection of offense to a team that desperately needs it.

Tavares is not a player that lacks motivation either. He was so anxious to play in the NHL he tried to get the league to bend their rules in order to enter the draft early. That is the type of hunger teams love to see in a player. Tavares has a desire to play and a desire to win.

Why the Islanders WILL choose John Tavares:

I would go into work two, maybe three times a week last season and say something to my buddy Joe, an Isles fan, about how his team was mercilessly thrashed the night before (On one occasion by a score of 9 to 0 by the Hurricanes!). Joe would shake his head, adorned with a blue and orange Islanders cap, and he would say "one step closer to Tavares."

Tavares has put so much excitement into this fan base that people who have never seen the kid's face are pumped. Tavares will sell tickets, Tavares will sell jerseys, but more than anything Tavares will sell hope. Islanders fans are in desperate need of feeling like their team is on the way up and not on the way out. Sure, Tavares isn't going to walk on water (the un-frozen variety) and claim the cup next season, but he'll go a long way in making a team and their fans feel like that is a possibility.

Who knows, maybe this time the Islanders will have a 1st Overall Pick that can stay healthy.

Why the 2009 Draft is HUGE For Every Team

Draft day comes but once a year and for hockey fans it's like a second Christmas. The anticipation of what you will get is palpable. Wondering what waits for you underneath the tree is enough to drive you nuts. Will it be that sweet new Ninja Turtle, or a pair of dress socks? What if I get Michelangelo and I already have him? That's okay. Trade him to your cousin for Leonardo.

Now don't get me wrong, every year the draft is a big deal, but the circumstances surrounding this year have boiled this draft into a frenzy for nearly every club.

So, what makes this year so big for so many teams? I'll tell you:

1) Money. With an expected drop in the salary cap ceiling, many teams need to adjust their rosters. Some teams are pushed up against the ceiling and need to find ways to move pieces and still retain their strength. The Flyers are a great example of this. They are stacked with talent and only need some minor tweaks to improve, but the salary cap is forcing them to be creative. They recently signed Ray Emery to take the reins in goal because he is talented, yet his attitude is questionable, thereby making his price tag much smaller.

Then you've got teams like Tampa Bay. They are a lower-budget team looking for a change, but are saddled with a big expensive contract like Vincent Lecavalier's. Ideally they would move him before his no trade clause kicks in, but finding a suitor means finding a team with a lot of room under the cap and that can provide a valuable return.

2) Marquee players hitting the market. This is a pretty big off-season for UFAs with Gaborik, Hossa, Bouwmeester, Havlat, Sundin, and plenty of other game-breaking players entering free-agency. Every year there is one coveted player hitting the market that teams are after, but this year there is enough to go around. Not to mention Dany Heatley who is not a UFA, but will no doubt be leaving Ottawa after his request to be traded.

3) Teams looking for a big change. A lot of teams find themselves at turning points. The Islanders are a team that has hit bottom and officially needs to rebuild. Toronto has been rumored to be pushing for a higher pick in the draft and they factor to mix things up. Los Angeles is a team that has patiently rebuilt from the draft and is ready to get those final pieces that can push them into playoff contention. Teams like the Kings can really shake things up because they have talent to spare, are actively looking for players to trade for/sign, and have cap space to take on big contracts, like a Lecavalier. These teams can really get the cogs moving on trades.

4) Teams looking for that little boost. Even the most succesful teams from the previous season need to tweak. The cup winners will have players set to become UFA's and they'll certainly want to keep those pieces or replace them. Teams that came oh-so-close like the Hurricanes and Blackhawks will want to make those little moves that will keep them competitive and maybe push them a step closer to winning it all. Detroit came up one win short and will need to give themselves the edge in some way to turn the tables next year.

and finally the X-Factor...

5) Tavares and Hedman. The reason why this draft is so special is because the top two players in the draft are a toss up. Elite level toss ups. Not, good-but-not-great toss ups. Great toss ups. Hedman has received comparisons to Chris Pronger, standing 6'6", skating well, and being talented offensively from the blue-line. Tavares, bereft of comparisons, has been talked about for years, tried to enter the draft early, and has broken Wayne Gretzky's long standing junior records.

They are such a big factor because they figure to be the key dominoes in the chain. If the Islanders take Tavares, Hedman goes to Tampa and maybe Lecavalier stays, but if the Isles take Hedman, Tampa could do a number of things from taking Tavares and trading Vinny, trading the pick and sending Tavares to a number of salivating suitors, or a plethora of other options. And don't forget about Matt Duchene who is slated to go #3 in the draft and has been compared to Joe Sakic. Phew.

All of these factors come together to make a HUGE off season for the NHL. We could be looking at some seriously different clubs come next season.

So come Saturday there will be a lot of hockey fans running down the stairs to see what's under their tree. Will your team land a Ninja Turtle, or get stuck with some dress socks?