A Paper Stanley Cup

Boy oh boy, did I like the Hurricanes chances before this season began.  They just got done with a great run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season and managed to fill some gaps in the off-season.  Most hockey pundits placed them high in the Eastern Conference pre-season rankings.  Great post-season, active off-season, strong pre-season ranking, what could go wrong? 

Well, they looked good on paper.  On paper.  ON PAPER.

Why didn't it translate to the ice?  Why is this team flirting with last place?  How could all of those journalists and prognosticators get it so wrong? 

The problem is, paper doesn't always show some of the most important factors that affect a team.  I'm no expert and I'm not going to pretend I know what has caused Carolina or any other team's fall from grace, but here are a few factors that don't always show up on the roster or stat sheet:

1) Injuries.  I'm not talking about players on injured reserve or even day-to-day.  I'm talking about players who continue to play with nagging injuries.  Often there is speculation that a player may be playing through an injury because he doesn't want to be on the shelf and let his team down.  Add that to the extreme secrecy teams have over injuries and speculation runs amuck.  Everything may seem fine and dandy since your favorite player is dressed every night and hitting the ice, but maybe his body isn't holding up as well as you'd think. 

2) Potential vs. Reality.  Chad LaRose finished with 19 goals last season and seemed to be emerging as a top 6 forward.  So he must be poised for more this season, right?  Not necessarily.  Projecting the future of a player, even by one season can be a tricky business.  Many a player has been given a bloated contract or bumped up to a higher line due to a breakout season, but this happens all the time.  A player has a great year that stands out as a fluke, or to borrow a phrase "a player playing his best hockey."  Maybe last year's Hurricanes were a collection of decent players playing great hockey and not great players playing to their expected ability.  

3) Age.  We get so used to hearing a name and expecting a result.  I hear "John Doe" and I expect a better than 50% face-off percentage, 20+ goals, and 40+ assists.  Then, all of a sudden, he produces less than that.  I look at his birthday and he was born when Nixon was in office, yikes.  But what about guys like Ray Whitney or Keith Tkachuk?  They're getting up there in age and still playing some strong hockey.  The problem is it's impossible to know when a player will taper off, how rapidly it will happen, and whether he can adjust to his new role.  I like to use Mike Modano as an example of a guy who transitioned beautifully from being the go-to-guy for Dallas to being a strong depth player.  For other guys who don't have as complete a skill-set, when the hands go they have nothing else to offer.  It's like trying to predict when bread will go bad.  Sometimes you get a loaf that stays good for a freakishly long amount of time, and sometimes you wake up to a science experiment on your counter.

4) System.  Teams with successful systems reflect it in the standings.  When all of the pieces are pulling in the same direction a team is more likely to execute a game-plan.  Gretzky was often accused of coaching the Coyotes without a system.  Whether or not this is true, they certainly played as though they didn't have one.  Super-Mustache Dave Tippett, a man with a very defined system, takes over and suddenly the Coyotes are playing above their predicted ability.  And much like my next point, you can have a great group of players but without a successful system it doesn't mean a thing. 

5) Chemistry.  You can have a great group of players but without chemistry it doesn't mean a thing.  It's the "Dream Team" concept.  Sometimes the best team isn't necessarily a collection of star players, but a collection of players who play well together.  Maybe Erik Cole is a mediocre winger without Eric Staal centering him, but while they're playing together they're clicking.  Jarome Iginla and Olli Jokinen may both be top level talent, but they just can't seem to gel for some reason.  And no one can discount the value of chemistry when looking at LA's line of Kopitar, Smyth, and Williams.  41 points for the trio through 10 games played?  That's chemistry.

Unfortunately, there is no stat to show chemistry.  Nor is there a value you can assign to a system, or a way to project potential or age's affect on a player.  If there were, maybe "on paper" predictions would more accurately show how a team would perform in a given season.

Then again, where's the fun in that?  There would be no surprises, no upsets, no underdogs, and no tragedies.  It would do away with the constant underestimation of teams like my Hurricanes.  So go ahead 'Canes, stink it up out there, because we all know that Carolina doesn't show up until you count them out.

Jersey Destruction: Part 2

Welcome back to the ongoing series "Jersey Destruction". No, it's not about the Carolina Hurricanes giving Martin Brodeur a blown gasket, it's where I mercilessly skewer the jerseys of all 30 NHL teams.

The Central division is rife with fodder for me to mock, so in the spirit of my last post I will show no mercy.

Chicago Blackhawks

You know what I think of when Chicago comes to mind? Native Americans. Okay, not really. Ask ten people what comes to mind when they hear Chicago and their answers will range from "deep dish pizza" to "Sears Tower" to "The Cubs". I'll bet nary a one says "The Blackhawk Tribe." That aside, a pat on the back for avoiding the cartoonish depiction that Cleveland uses, but hey, it's Cleveland. It also appears that the mascot is wearing the NBC peacock in his hair, which is ironic since the Blackhawks didn't televise games for what seemed like a century. The Blackhawks mascot is named "Tommy Hawk" which is all too appropriate considering the town's violent background. Nothing draws Chicago fans like the threat of violence!

Columbus Blue Jackets

Pretty surprising they would select a team name with the word "Blue" in it considering they're in the same division as the St. Louis Blues. So, what comes to mind when you hear "Blue Jackets"? Is it a sale at JC Penney? Is it a rare variety of bee? Nope, it's a Civil War soldier! Did anyone tell these guys to avoid the abbreviation "B.J."? Between the NBC peacock in the Blackhawks logo and the shooting star in Columbus' you have a "The More You Know" PSA.

Detroit Red Wings


On the opposite end of the spectrum from Atlanta, Detroit decided they needed just two colors because they weren't boring enough. Can someone explain this winged-wheel to me. Does it fly? Is it supposed to roll? Do the wings flap against the road as it wobbles around? Is it attached to anything or is it just some kind of lame Transformer? Or maybe it's an angelic unicycle? I mean, isn't the point of the auto industry that it rolls and doesn't fly?

Nashville Predators


There are a lot of animals that could be considered predators, but Nashville was bold and went with one that had incredibly impractical biting apparatus. Dinosaur? No. Jungle cat? Closer. Extinct cat with a severe overbite? Bingo! Pat on the back for ditching the third jersey with the logo that looked like it had a hairball caught in its throat. However, making silver a prominent color just makes us think you're a second place kind of team.

St. Louis Blues

I mean, you're really setting yourself up for failure when your team is named after the official music of the depressed. It must be a thing in the Central Division to add wings to an obscure inanimate object. When I say your logo is a low C, I'm not speaking in musical terms. As a bonus, here is the Blues mascot Louie pictured with former Blues netminder Manny Legace:

I hope you enjoyed this segment of Jersey Destruction. Tune in next time as we head back east!

Mock Expansion Draft

Expansion. The notion pops up every once in a while, exciting the bejeezus out of Kansas City, Las Vegas, Hamilton, and any other city that has gotten a whiff of talks about getting a potential NHL team. However, given the current economic climate it's simply not feasible.

Yet, I was curious, what happens if tomorrow the NHL decides to award two lucky cities an NHL franchise? Then we get to witness the weirdness of an NHL Expansion Draft. Rather than the usual draft of future stars, it's a draft of leftovers.

The basic parameters of an expansion draft are as follows. Each of the existing 30 NHL teams can protect 1 goaltender, 5 defenseman, and 9 forwards. The other option is to protect 2 goaltenders, 3 defenseman, and 7 forwards. I didn't see any teams choosing the latter option, so all 30 teams in my hypothetical chose to protect 1 goalie. Also, rookie players got automatic protection and do not count toward the allotted number. Each new team would then draft 3 goaltenders, 8 defenseman, and 13 forwards in that order.

So, I went through and I conducted the mock draft myself, protecting the players I thought each team would protect, then drafting them in the order I thought they would be drafted. I'm presenting the results broken up into the two hypothetical teams, East and West, in the order I believe the teams would draft them.

After completing this experiment I noticed a number of issues that arise from an expansion draft. First, let's look at the results:

Eastern Team

Goaltenders

J.S. Giguere
Jose Theodore
Jaroslav Halak

Defensemen

Christoph Schubert
Steve Staios
Mike Van Ryn
Martin Skoula
Steve Montador
Hal Gill
Mark Eaton
Peter Harrold

Forwards

Dustin Penner
B.J. Crombeen
Maxim Lapierre
Alexander Steen
T.J. Hensick
Chris Kelly
Tomas Kopecky
Kyle Brodziak
Mike Grier
Pascal Dupuis
Ian Laperriere
Ben Eager
Tom Kostopoulos
Craig Adams
Rick Rypien

Western Team

Goaltenders

Tim Thomas
Vesa Toskala
Martin Biron

Defensemen

Garnett Exelby
Nick Boynton
Milan Jurcina
Mathieu Schneider
Jeff Finger
Lukas Krajicek
Jeff Schultz
Sean O'Donnell

Forwards

Todd Bertuzzi
Eric Belanger
Fredrik Modin
Dominic Moore
Daniel Paille
Radek Dvorak
Scott Walker
Fredrik Sjostrom
Ben Guite
Travis Moen
Torrey Mitchell
Raffi Torres
Steve Begin
Brian Boyle
Fernando Pisani

Obviously, these aren't the strongest teams. The purpose is simply to give the new teams some players to ice while hindering the other 30 teams as little as possible. Then after a few years of toiling in the basement, the new teams should have compiled enough high draft picks to ice some franchise-player talent.

Some observations:

Age? Some of my decisions were dictated by the longevity of a player. For example, both of the top goalies selected were players you would expect to be protected. However, both Boston and Anaheim have goaltenders that are considered their future. In Anaheim's case, Jonas Hiller is considered their present as well. As a GM I would rather hang onto the goaltender that could give me 10 good years rather than 4. This begs another important question; how much does a team's loyalty to a player count? Think Modano. He's on the tail end of a career of great memories in Dallas, but is he worth protecting for 2 or 3 more years?

Contracts? More than a few teams have signed players to bad contracts. Would these teams take this opportunity to potentially unload an overpaid player? Granted, they wouldn't receive anything in return, but they also wouldn't have to pay an overpaid player. In the case of Dustin Penner, I figured the Oilers would see if there were any takers for the big man. Oh, and believe me, I thought long and hard about whether the Islanders would try to unload DiPietro.

Consequences? What happens to a player that does not get protected and they go undrafted. Do they get offended? Would it create a similar atmosphere as when a player gets wind they are on the trade block? There is certainly a risk involved.

The best and worst? I noticed the teams that fare the best are the teams with the most rookies on the roster. The more rookies, the less players that count toward the 9 protection spots. The teams that have the hardest time? Teams with a lot of 2nd or 3rd year players, such as St. Louis. I'm sure B.J. Crombeen isn't a guy they would love letting go, but with the likes of Oshie, Berglund, and Perron taking up valuable spots someone is bound to find themself on the outside looking in.

Most likely to be left out? The agitators and the fighters were the most common names to find themselves out of the mix. There seems to be a pretty good collection of bruisers in the AHL ready to step up, so why waste a slot on one? However, Avery and Carcillo both won spots on their respective teams from me due to their versatility.

Although it will certainly be a while before an Expansion Draft rears it's ugly head, if GM's in this league anticipate growth, they had better anticipate making some tough decisions.

Great News For Great Ice-Pectations

If you didn't come from this link, then check out this link:

Yahoo! Sports Blog: Jersey Fouls

Look for a picture by Great Ice-Pectations and a link to the blog about halfway down!

Thanks readers!

-Eric

How To Be A Better Hockey Fan

Hockey suffers from what I like to call "mainstream obscurity". It's a major sport, a big business, and a household name in our society. Yet, hockey is far from being universally understood or liked. Much is made of how the NHL or other major hockey leagues around the world market the sport. Fans and media alike are often critical of the stances and directions the NHL chooses in order to promote the sport. However, I think the onus is on us as fans to promote the sport as well.

How do we do this? Well, there is no one way and there is no "right" way, but I think there are some simple things we all can do to spread the love for this great sport.

1. Don't Be "That Guy".

Every time you go to a hockey game, or are watching one at a bar there is that one obnoxious, ignorant fan. The type of fan that ruins the game for everyone else and destroys what we are all looking for when we treat ourselves to a game; fun. It's supposed to be fun for everyone, so don't ruin it for others.

Now, I know I can get excited, worked-up, and stressed out but I try to keep it from affecting others. I do my fair share of trash talking as well, but I try to keep it all in good fun. For example, I attended the LA Kings final home game of the 08-09 season. A Sharks fan sat in front of me and ribbed on Kings fans all night, but when it was all said and done, the Kings won the game. Afterward, she looked at me and said "at least the Sharks made the playoffs," to which I replied "enjoy choking in the first round... yet again." She paused a moment, then smiled. No hard feelings, it's all in good fun.

2. Encourage Younger Fans.

I can whine all day about how fans of other mainstream sports don't give hockey a chance or about how they are too unsophisticated to enjoy a "real" sport like hockey, but when it comes down to it, adults have their minds made up. Most adults know what they like and they stick to it.

So get your little brother or cousin or neighbor into it. Take them to a live game for their birthday, show them a game on TV, play a hockey video game with them. Kids are more open-minded and are more likely to give the sport a chance. It's better than wasting your time on your friends who won't give the sport the time of day.

3. Support Your Losers.

Nobody likes a loser, but if you're a true fan then you'll still love them. Go to a game and see them get buried. Watch them on TV and throw popcorn at the set. Wear your jersey out and get made fun of. It's part of being a fan and it makes it that much sweeter when they actually win.

4. Teach People The Game.

Who hasn't sat down to a game with a newbie and heard "what's icing?" or "where's the puck?" Don't laugh at them, help them out. If someone understands the sport they're much more likely to become a fan. Don't just tell them what icing is, explain why it's a rule. It's much easier to remember it that way. Don't just point the puck out to them, teach them how to find it. I like to tell people not to look for the puck. That's like trying to find Waldo. Look at the body language of the players. You can always find the puck when you know how someone acts when they have it.

5. Support Other Teams.

This may sound odd or counterproductive, but don't stop at one team. Be a fan of many teams. It's only more beneficial to the league for you to support as many teams as you want. I personally have an Eastern Conference team, the Hurricanes, and a Western Conference team, the Kings.

Even if your team(s) don't make the playoffs, pick one to support. The more fans following the playoffs, the more attention it gets from hockey outsiders. Our sport is major league sport. Our sport is on television. Our sport is great, so let's make sure other people know why.

***

For fun, I think I'll do a post about how to be an elitist hockey snob. Just to keep the balance of the world right...

What's Good For The Goose...

I remember vividly how angry I was when I saw Brandon Sutter getting his clock cleaned by Doug Weight last season. Sutter was going after a loose puck, anticipating a short-handed breakaway when Weight caught him with his head down and delivered a brutal hit. Sutter had a concussion and his season with the big club was pretty much over.



Jim Rutherford, GM of the Carolina Hurricanes, was incensed with the hit and lobbied for the NHL to do away with hits to the head. Of course, that didn't happen. Debates erupted across hockey message boards on the topic and on the hit itself. Was it legal? Well, no matter how hard it is for a 'Canes fan to swallow, it was a perfectly legal hit. Weight didn't leave his feet. Weight didn't bury his elbow into Sutter's ear. It was a textbook hard hit and Islanders fans let us know it at any chance. Their player was not in the wrong. (Kudos to the Hurricanes commentators John Forslund and Tripp Tracy for their objective evaluation of the hit.)

So why was I angry? I was angry because it was difficult to see a player with such promise, a 1st round pick by my favorite team, and a guy who is already being talked about as captain material have his well-being threatened by an avoidable hit. It was avoidable by both Brandon, who should have had his head up and by Doug Weight who could have decided to lay a less violent hit on Sutter. Now, I don't think Weight had any intention of injuring the kid, just look at his face while they're scraping Sutter off the ice. Nor do I think he should have let up. Hitting is a part of the game. Players, especially young players have to learn to keep their heads up. They can't get away with the stuff they could in juniors any more.

This brings us to yesterday. During a preseason game against the Calgary Flames, the New York Islanders 1st round pick from 2006, Kyle Okposo, had his head taken off by Dion Phaneuf. He was skating with his head down through center ice, just as Sutter was last season, when Phaneuf made him pay the price. Although Phaneuf appears to leave his feet, it was as a result of the hit and not because he jumped into Okposo. Phaneuf was penalized for fighting after the hit, but not for the hit itself. It was another clean hit.



It's an unfortunate irony, but the Islanders are now tasting what 'Canes fans tasted last season. This blog is not meant to rub it in or to laugh at anyone's misfortune. It is to remind fans to look at every play, at every hit, at every goal with objectivity. As much as I wanted to be mad at Doug Weight for his hit, I couldn't be because he did nothing wrong. As much as I wanted to be mad at the NHL for not paying heed to Rutherford's pleas, I couldn't. The rules have been that way for a long time and the NHL isn't about to change them because another person got caught with their head down.

They didn't change them in 2006 when Brian Campbell derailed R.J. Umberger. Players are just going to have to learn not to put themselves in that position and fans are going to have to learn to swallow the bitter pill.

You Can Bet On It

At the beginning of each season, hockey pundits make their predictions of how each team will finish in the standings. Predicting who will win a championship in any sport is very difficult. There are so many things that can happen in a season that it make it nearly impossible to know how it all will shake out.

So, I'm not going to do that. Instead, I'm going to make some predictions on things that are a little more certain. What I'm going to point out won't surprise anyone. You can set your watches to these occurrences.

Phoenix will stink up the ice again.

This team has been one of the hottest discussion topics in a summer full of controversy and it's not a good thing. No matter what Shane Doan says, the teams ownership issues will surely be a distraction. Not like it matters, Phoenix or Hamilton or whoever they are come this fall isn't exactly a model team. Sure, they boast some promising prospects but they squash their development by forcing them into the lineup too early in order to keep costs down. The perennial desert losers will once again feel the sting of a season wasted. Don't forget they share a division with a Sharks team that is pretty much a lock to make the playoffs each year, a Ducks team that has managed to fill all of their gaps this off-season (and they were few to begin with), a Dallas team looking for redemption, and a Kings team that is on the verge of being a real playoff contender. Start making tee-times, guys.

Ilya Kovalchuk will start house shopping, but not in Atlanta.

Maybe this isn't such a sure thing, but it seems inevitable. Atlanta has a knack for chasing off superstar players, from Heatley to Hossa. Yes, Atlanta has drafted high as of late. Bogosian, Kane, and Little will surely help this team in the future but the problem is they won't keep Kovalchuk from getting insane offers when he become a free agent at the end of this season. They have to go through burgeoning powerhouse Washington, Conference finalists Carolina, a much improved Tampa Bay team, and Florida who missed the playoffs last season on a tiebreak. Yes, the sound of those odds alone just pulled Kari Lehtonen's groin.

Martin Brodeur will bid adieu to Terry Sawchuk's shutout record.

Brodeur has already eclipsed Patrick Roy for most career wins, putting the record out of reasonable reach. If and when that record is broken it will be by a goal-tending phenom, the likes of which we have never seen. "Brodeur vs. Roy" is officially the "Gretzky vs. Lemieux" of the crease, and adding to Brodeur's ammunition will be his ownership of the shutout record. Brodeur stands at 101, Sawchuk has 103. Brodeur had 5 shutouts last season and he only appeared in 31 games. He usually starts around 75. Oh, and uber-defensive minded coach Jacques Lemaire is back behind the bench. It was a nice run Mr. Sawchuk. Take solace in the fact that you'll be beaten out by the best ever. (That's right, I'm a Brodeur guy.)

Alexander Ovechkin will bear his toothless grin a minimum of 50 times.

Ovechkin had a slump last season. After 11 games he had only 8 points and 2 goals. That means 54 of his goals were spread out over just 68 games. Ovechkin's consistency approaches the realm of sickening. Goaltenders will have nightmares of this guy. Don Cherry will get red-faced over Ovechkin's enthusiasm for no reason other than the fact he isn't Canadian. Ovechkin will roar across your Sports Center screen like the Tasmanian Devil. Count on it.

Commissioner Gary Bettman will be booed mercilessly any time he shows his face.

It's sad to say it, but I think George W. Bush had a higher approval rating than Gary Bettman does. Why does everyone hate Bettman so much? It's like asking why is the Fonz cool. Bettman represents "the man" in hockey and "the man" is in charge of everything that the fans hate. Ticket prices? Bettman's fault. TV coverage? Bettman's fault. CBA disputes? Bettman's fault. Whether these things are actually his fault is moot. He will be booed for them anyway. Maybe a little less booed than Sarah Palin though.