Mock Expansion Draft

Expansion. The notion pops up every once in a while, exciting the bejeezus out of Kansas City, Las Vegas, Hamilton, and any other city that has gotten a whiff of talks about getting a potential NHL team. However, given the current economic climate it's simply not feasible.

Yet, I was curious, what happens if tomorrow the NHL decides to award two lucky cities an NHL franchise? Then we get to witness the weirdness of an NHL Expansion Draft. Rather than the usual draft of future stars, it's a draft of leftovers.

The basic parameters of an expansion draft are as follows. Each of the existing 30 NHL teams can protect 1 goaltender, 5 defenseman, and 9 forwards. The other option is to protect 2 goaltenders, 3 defenseman, and 7 forwards. I didn't see any teams choosing the latter option, so all 30 teams in my hypothetical chose to protect 1 goalie. Also, rookie players got automatic protection and do not count toward the allotted number. Each new team would then draft 3 goaltenders, 8 defenseman, and 13 forwards in that order.

So, I went through and I conducted the mock draft myself, protecting the players I thought each team would protect, then drafting them in the order I thought they would be drafted. I'm presenting the results broken up into the two hypothetical teams, East and West, in the order I believe the teams would draft them.

After completing this experiment I noticed a number of issues that arise from an expansion draft. First, let's look at the results:

Eastern Team

Goaltenders

J.S. Giguere
Jose Theodore
Jaroslav Halak

Defensemen

Christoph Schubert
Steve Staios
Mike Van Ryn
Martin Skoula
Steve Montador
Hal Gill
Mark Eaton
Peter Harrold

Forwards

Dustin Penner
B.J. Crombeen
Maxim Lapierre
Alexander Steen
T.J. Hensick
Chris Kelly
Tomas Kopecky
Kyle Brodziak
Mike Grier
Pascal Dupuis
Ian Laperriere
Ben Eager
Tom Kostopoulos
Craig Adams
Rick Rypien

Western Team

Goaltenders

Tim Thomas
Vesa Toskala
Martin Biron

Defensemen

Garnett Exelby
Nick Boynton
Milan Jurcina
Mathieu Schneider
Jeff Finger
Lukas Krajicek
Jeff Schultz
Sean O'Donnell

Forwards

Todd Bertuzzi
Eric Belanger
Fredrik Modin
Dominic Moore
Daniel Paille
Radek Dvorak
Scott Walker
Fredrik Sjostrom
Ben Guite
Travis Moen
Torrey Mitchell
Raffi Torres
Steve Begin
Brian Boyle
Fernando Pisani

Obviously, these aren't the strongest teams. The purpose is simply to give the new teams some players to ice while hindering the other 30 teams as little as possible. Then after a few years of toiling in the basement, the new teams should have compiled enough high draft picks to ice some franchise-player talent.

Some observations:

Age? Some of my decisions were dictated by the longevity of a player. For example, both of the top goalies selected were players you would expect to be protected. However, both Boston and Anaheim have goaltenders that are considered their future. In Anaheim's case, Jonas Hiller is considered their present as well. As a GM I would rather hang onto the goaltender that could give me 10 good years rather than 4. This begs another important question; how much does a team's loyalty to a player count? Think Modano. He's on the tail end of a career of great memories in Dallas, but is he worth protecting for 2 or 3 more years?

Contracts? More than a few teams have signed players to bad contracts. Would these teams take this opportunity to potentially unload an overpaid player? Granted, they wouldn't receive anything in return, but they also wouldn't have to pay an overpaid player. In the case of Dustin Penner, I figured the Oilers would see if there were any takers for the big man. Oh, and believe me, I thought long and hard about whether the Islanders would try to unload DiPietro.

Consequences? What happens to a player that does not get protected and they go undrafted. Do they get offended? Would it create a similar atmosphere as when a player gets wind they are on the trade block? There is certainly a risk involved.

The best and worst? I noticed the teams that fare the best are the teams with the most rookies on the roster. The more rookies, the less players that count toward the 9 protection spots. The teams that have the hardest time? Teams with a lot of 2nd or 3rd year players, such as St. Louis. I'm sure B.J. Crombeen isn't a guy they would love letting go, but with the likes of Oshie, Berglund, and Perron taking up valuable spots someone is bound to find themself on the outside looking in.

Most likely to be left out? The agitators and the fighters were the most common names to find themselves out of the mix. There seems to be a pretty good collection of bruisers in the AHL ready to step up, so why waste a slot on one? However, Avery and Carcillo both won spots on their respective teams from me due to their versatility.

Although it will certainly be a while before an Expansion Draft rears it's ugly head, if GM's in this league anticipate growth, they had better anticipate making some tough decisions.