Thursday, June 25, 2009

Who the Isles Will Pick and Why...

So much changes in such little time. At the end of the season, the New York Islanders were in the least enviable position as they sat at the bottom of the NHL rankings. Their owner Charles Wang even admitted that he regretted ever buying the club.

This weekend, they will be in the most desired position of any team as they step to the podium to make the 1st overall selection in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.

The Islanders have a tough decision ahead of them, but it's kind of like choosing between steak and lobster. They have two excellent prospects to pick from and there are great reasons to select either of them. So let's cut to the chase!

Why the Islanders should choose Victor Hedman:

Hedman is big, strong, and talented. It's tough to find guys who fill all of those categories. You've got guys like Mike Green who can pot 30 goals, but may leave something to be desired in defensive aspects of the game. Then you've got your Hal Gill-types who tower over forwards and plug them against the boards, yet he is lucky to score more than a goal a season. Then you've got Zdeno Chara. He is huge, shuts down the opposing forwards, and can score as well.

Zdeno Chara doesn't fall off trees. I'm not saying Hedman is or will be Chara, but his potential to be a big, strong, and offensively potent defender is there and then some. Teams build around defense and Hedman would definitely go a long, long way in helping the Isles rebuild their defense. Not to mention Hedman could help as soon as next season, a rarity for defenseman.

Why the Islanders should choose John Tavares:

How many players were scoring a goal per game in juniors? John Tavares was. How many players can boast breaking records set by Wayne Gretzky? John Tavares can. This is a player with unreal goal scoring potential. He has a nose for the net and the hands of a concert pianist. Tavares would provide an instant injection of offense to a team that desperately needs it.

Tavares is not a player that lacks motivation either. He was so anxious to play in the NHL he tried to get the league to bend their rules in order to enter the draft early. That is the type of hunger teams love to see in a player. Tavares has a desire to play and a desire to win.

Why the Islanders WILL choose John Tavares:

I would go into work two, maybe three times a week last season and say something to my buddy Joe, an Isles fan, about how his team was mercilessly thrashed the night before (On one occasion by a score of 9 to 0 by the Hurricanes!). Joe would shake his head, adorned with a blue and orange Islanders cap, and he would say "one step closer to Tavares."

Tavares has put so much excitement into this fan base that people who have never seen the kid's face are pumped. Tavares will sell tickets, Tavares will sell jerseys, but more than anything Tavares will sell hope. Islanders fans are in desperate need of feeling like their team is on the way up and not on the way out. Sure, Tavares isn't going to walk on water (the un-frozen variety) and claim the cup next season, but he'll go a long way in making a team and their fans feel like that is a possibility.

Who knows, maybe this time the Islanders will have a 1st Overall Pick that can stay healthy.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Why the 2009 Draft is HUGE For Every Team

Draft day comes but once a year and for hockey fans it's like a second Christmas. The anticipation of what you will get is palpable. Wondering what waits for you underneath the tree is enough to drive you nuts. Will it be that sweet new Ninja Turtle, or a pair of dress socks? What if I get Michelangelo and I already have him? That's okay. Trade him to your cousin for Leonardo.

Now don't get me wrong, every year the draft is a big deal, but the circumstances surrounding this year have boiled this draft into a frenzy for nearly every club.

So, what makes this year so big for so many teams? I'll tell you:

1) Money. With an expected drop in the salary cap ceiling, many teams need to adjust their rosters. Some teams are pushed up against the ceiling and need to find ways to move pieces and still retain their strength. The Flyers are a great example of this. They are stacked with talent and only need some minor tweaks to improve, but the salary cap is forcing them to be creative. They recently signed Ray Emery to take the reins in goal because he is talented, yet his attitude is questionable, thereby making his price tag much smaller.

Then you've got teams like Tampa Bay. They are a lower-budget team looking for a change, but are saddled with a big expensive contract like Vincent Lecavalier's. Ideally they would move him before his no trade clause kicks in, but finding a suitor means finding a team with a lot of room under the cap and that can provide a valuable return.

2) Marquee players hitting the market. This is a pretty big off-season for UFAs with Gaborik, Hossa, Bouwmeester, Havlat, Sundin, and plenty of other game-breaking players entering free-agency. Every year there is one coveted player hitting the market that teams are after, but this year there is enough to go around. Not to mention Dany Heatley who is not a UFA, but will no doubt be leaving Ottawa after his request to be traded.

3) Teams looking for a big change. A lot of teams find themselves at turning points. The Islanders are a team that has hit bottom and officially needs to rebuild. Toronto has been rumored to be pushing for a higher pick in the draft and they factor to mix things up. Los Angeles is a team that has patiently rebuilt from the draft and is ready to get those final pieces that can push them into playoff contention. Teams like the Kings can really shake things up because they have talent to spare, are actively looking for players to trade for/sign, and have cap space to take on big contracts, like a Lecavalier. These teams can really get the cogs moving on trades.

4) Teams looking for that little boost. Even the most succesful teams from the previous season need to tweak. The cup winners will have players set to become UFA's and they'll certainly want to keep those pieces or replace them. Teams that came oh-so-close like the Hurricanes and Blackhawks will want to make those little moves that will keep them competitive and maybe push them a step closer to winning it all. Detroit came up one win short and will need to give themselves the edge in some way to turn the tables next year.

and finally the X-Factor...

5) Tavares and Hedman. The reason why this draft is so special is because the top two players in the draft are a toss up. Elite level toss ups. Not, good-but-not-great toss ups. Great toss ups. Hedman has received comparisons to Chris Pronger, standing 6'6", skating well, and being talented offensively from the blue-line. Tavares, bereft of comparisons, has been talked about for years, tried to enter the draft early, and has broken Wayne Gretzky's long standing junior records.

They are such a big factor because they figure to be the key dominoes in the chain. If the Islanders take Tavares, Hedman goes to Tampa and maybe Lecavalier stays, but if the Isles take Hedman, Tampa could do a number of things from taking Tavares and trading Vinny, trading the pick and sending Tavares to a number of salivating suitors, or a plethora of other options. And don't forget about Matt Duchene who is slated to go #3 in the draft and has been compared to Joe Sakic. Phew.

All of these factors come together to make a HUGE off season for the NHL. We could be looking at some seriously different clubs come next season.

So come Saturday there will be a lot of hockey fans running down the stairs to see what's under their tree. Will your team land a Ninja Turtle, or get stuck with some dress socks?

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Zetterberg vs. The Sedin Twins

So the Sedin twins have apparently named their price. They want a 12 year deal worth $126 million total. The deal has received comparisons to the deal the Red Wings signed Henrik Zetterberg to this past season.

Okay, that must mean the Sedin Twins are comparable players, right? Let's find out!

Birth Country?

Zetterberg - Sweden
Sedins - Sweden

Age?

Zetterberg - 28
Sedins - 28

Scored more than 40 goals in a season?

Zetterberg - Yes
Sedins - No (Neither)

Scored more than 90 points in a season?

Zetterberg - Yes
Sedins - No (Neither)

Has won a Stanley Cup?

Zetterberg - Yes
Sedins - No (Neither)

Has won the Conn Smythe Trophy?

Zetterberg - Yes
Sedins - No (Neither)

Type of facial hair?

Zetterberg - Awesome Man-Beard
Sedins- Weird Ginger Goatees

So what do you think? Would you shell out Zetterberg money for a pair of Sedins?

Don't Finish That Sentence...

Brian Burke was right. I don't like to say those words but I can't argue with his position.

Regarding the recent Dany Heatley trade request debacle in Ottawa, Burke went on the record saying that he and Toronto weren't in the market for the high scoring winger. His reasons ranged from the tactful "...I have certain guidelines on how players ask for trades," to the blunt "I'm not kissing anyone's ass to play in my town, so to hell with you..."

Tell us how you really feel, Brian.

I can't blame the guy though. Once a guy requests a trade it shows he has given up. He's given up on you as a GM, your coach, and every other guy in that locker room. Now am I saying everything can be worked out without a trade? That requesting a trade should never happen? No, not at all, but the fact that Ottawa GM Brian Murray was surprised by this request tells me a lot. It tells me Heatley didn't come to Brian and say "Hey, I'm not getting along with the coach so well. What can we do?" or "I'm not playing as many minutes as I'd like to, what can we do about that?" Heck, in hockey video games a player will tell you he wants more minutes. Dany didn't want to fix the problem, he wants to run away from it.

By requesting the trade Dany actually made it harder for Murray to move him. First, he has shown all 29 other teams that he could do this to them. If a team is looking for a team player, a character guy, someone who is out there to win it for his team as well as himself, they might think twice on Heatley.

Second, Dany has made it difficult for Ottawa to get a truly fair trade for him. He is a high value player, no doubt. He is an elite offensive talent, but now that everyone knows Heatley wants out, teams can hold back a little bit. Murray might not get all that he could in return, which is a real shame considering the team just shelled out a high dollar contract on the guy.

What this all boils down to is an attitude problem. Something you'll hear time and again from a team right after they win Lord Stanley's Cup is "I'm just glad I could do it for all the guys in this room" or "I really wanted to do this for my team." That's how you win cups. In Carolina there is a sign above the door leading out to the beaches from the locker room that reads something like "It's not about me, it's about the guy behind me." That doesn't seem to apply to Dany Heatley and no matter how much it pains me to say it, I'm with you on this one, Burkey. I wouldn't be in the market for Heatley either.

Although, he would be a boon to my roller hockey team...

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Why, Gary, why?

First, welcome to Great Ice-pectations. I was going to designate this first entry to sort of introduce the blog and what it would be about etc., but I will save that for another time because I want to jump right in with something that is on my mind and certainly on the mind of Gary Bettman.

Everyone is familiar with the Phoenix Coyotes situation of late and the showdown between Darth Bettman and Jim Balsillie. The court found in favor of the NHL (sort of) when it rejected Balisillie's overly generous bid to buy the Coyotes. The grounds for the rejection were summed up as "insufficient time to meet the parameters of the contract". Basically the contract stipulated the team be forked over to Balsillie before free agency starts so that the new ownership would have control over free-agency. Unfotunately for Balsillie, he's more likely to be participating in a fantasy draft before an actual one.

So we know Jim's side of it. He wants a team. He wants the Coyotes. He wants them in Hamilton and nowhere else. It's pretty cut and dry.

But what about Bettman? What does he want? Why fight so hard for a team that has lost around $36 million in each of the last 3 season? For a team that is so far away from it's home city that fans don't want to go to games? For a team that hasn't seen the post season since early this decade? For a team that is sucking revenue shares from the rest of the attendance-getting league?

Here are my guesses:

1) Bettman is the boss. He wants things his way as much as Balsillie wants things his. I can't blame the guy, he is the NHL commissioner and he should have a certain say in what goes on. If I were him I wouldn't want some guy coming in and taking a team from under my nose. It looks bad on him. He has no time to prepare for it, marketing wise, organization wise (is Hamilton a Western Conference team?), or financially. It's a control issue.

2) Publicity. Not just Bettman's publicity, because we all know how popular he is, but publicity for the league. After all, how does it look to have a team helmed by the The Great One fail so miserably? Not great.

3) Tradition. Hockey, more than any other sport I would argue, has a strong sense of tradition. That's why there is a debate about fighting every year and nothing happens. That's why Original 6 teams will always pick on my poor Hurricanes. People like things the way they are or the way they were. Especially hockey people. Bettman doesn't want change. He want's to prove the Coyotes can make it in Phoenix, even though they are looking a bit like Boromir in the Lord of the Rings right now, three arrows in his chest, swinging his sword wildly. And although it is commendable and bold, Boromir ends up dead.

Should Bettman so blindly defend Phoenix's endangered species? Yes, he should defend them, maybe not blindly. He needs to look at the bigger picture and not get distracted into a rivalry with a man who is incredibly intent on becoming an NHL owner.